It’s hard to see what’s happening with the Simulator results without the inputs. But if your consumption is 4000kWh a year, that’s 11kWh a day, + ~5kWh for the car. So I guess with a 4kW system (generating ~16kWh a day) you’ll get close to covering that.
Of course, the majority of what you’ll use will be sent to the grid, and you’ll be importing electricity when you need it at night, but you’ll be close to net 0 probably. Too bad you can’t charge the car during the day, you’d be able to nearly match your generation curve then.