I’ve been crunching the numbers to compare solar payback and savings between countries, and I was surprised to see that the Philippines came out WAY out in front (for solar only, no batteries) on payback, and also net savings over 25 years. So I thought I’d dig into why.
Would love to get input from people about whether the methodology makes sense, and also real world numbers. There are so many variables involved when it comes to solar, especially when adding batteries, so depending on assumptions used, the numbers can come out very different.
Here are the full results, methodology etc:
First of all, the results for solar only (not battery):
I have dug into the details of why Philippines is such a standout, and I believe the reason is the combination of 3 key variables:
- Above average sunshine
- Above average electricity prices
- Below average system cost
It’s this unique combination that I have not found many other country to have. In particular, the combination of high electricity prices and low system cost. South Africa, Brazil and Pakistan have a similar combination, and also very fast payback periods.
Australia also has low upfront costs and relatively high electricity prices, but the extremely low export rates for solar push the payback period out somewhat (although the payback is very good for solar + battery now).
Usually countries with low upfront solar costs, have low power prices as well (India, Vietnam, Thailand, Nigeria, Kenya etc), and high power prices mean high system cost (UK, US, Europe etc). But Philippines has relatively high electricity costs and low upfront solar costs. That’s a combination that makes for a very fast solar payback, especially when paired with 
.
